Suggested entries
Confirmed mean-reversion setups on the right side of the 20-day median (score ≥ 6). Nothing here means no clean entry today — that's the point.
Δ75–80 long-dated calls in an uptrend (price > 200-MA · 50 > 200) with a workable contract (time value ≤ 55%), graded by a transparent 0–11 entry score — buying a pullback inside the trend is fine.
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Fundamentals
The rules
1 · Structural gates — every CSP & CC must pass all
| Rule | Threshold | Why |
|---|---|---|
| DTE (days to expiry) | 21–45 · target 30 | the monthly cycle |
| Delta | 0.20–0.45 · target 0.30 | ~30Δ sweet spot |
| Premium | ≥ 1.2% of spot | worth selling; ≥1.5% = 🔥 strong |
| Open interest | ≥ 100 | liquidity |
| Bid/ask spread | ≤ 15% of mid | tradeable |
| Earnings | none within 7 days | no gap risk into the print |
2 · Bollinger median — the directional read
| Strategy | Rule | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| CSP | %B < 0.5 (below 20-day median) | enter into weakness — required for a green (§5) |
| CC | %B ≥ 0.5 (above median) | a better strike to write — a bonus (§3 D), not required: income can be written below the median too |
3 · Entry timing — when to write / sell
Two different jobs, so two ladders. CSP is an entry — catch a bounce off a bottom to get assigned cheap. CC is income — write calls on shares you already hold, so it should fire whenever the premium is worth it and the stock won't run away, not only at rare tops. Both score 0–12 and drive the light in §5 (a low timing score never reds a leg on its own — see §5).
CC — write income (on shares you hold)
| Block | Pts | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| A · Premium the income (IV vs HV20) | +4 | IV ≥ 1.25 × HV — fat premium |
| +3 | IV ≥ 1.10 × HV | |
| +2 | IV ≥ 1.00 × HV — fair | |
| +1 | IV ≥ 0.85 × HV | |
| B · Write safety won't run through the strike | +4 | RSI ≤ 45 — weak/neutral, safest to write |
| +3 | RSI ≤ 55 — neutral | |
| +2 | RSI ≤ 65 — mildly up | |
| +1 / 0 | RSI ≤ 70 → +1 · RSI > 70, or a runaway band-walk with no turn → 0 | |
| C · Top-fade bonus the A+ write | +3 | %B ≥ 0.80 & turning down |
| +2 | %B ≥ 0.65 & turning down | |
| +1 | %B ≥ 0.70 (stretched) | |
| D · Strike | +1 | %B ≥ 0.50 — writing at/above the median |
Max 12. Income-first: fat premium on a stock that isn't running up scores well even with no overbought top — because that's exactly when you hold assigned shares and want the income. The median is a strike bonus (D), not a gate. Note: this app is anonymous — it can't know your cost basis, so it never checks "above my basis" (that lives in the private tracker); it only reads whether now is a reasonable moment to write.
CSP — fade a bottom (enter cheap)
| Signal | Pts | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| A · Stretch (%B) | +3 | %B ≤ 0.10 (through the lower band) |
| +2 | %B ≤ 0.20 | |
| +1 | %B ≤ 0.30 (lower third) | |
| B · Rolling up | +2 | 3-day low (%B ≤ 0.05) & up today |
| +1 | turning up from depressed (%B < 0.40) | |
| C · RSI | +3 | RSI ≤ 30 & turning up |
| +2 | RSI ≤ 37 & turning up | |
| +1 | RSI ≤ 42 (depressed) | |
| D · Candle | +2 | bullish reversal pattern |
| +1 | up-day off a lower low | |
| E · Premium (IV/HV) | +2 | IV ≥ 1.25 × HV |
| +1 | IV ≥ 1.00 × HV | |
| Veto | −4 | still walking the lower band with no bounce (breakdown) |
Max 12. CSP wants price on the below-median side (§2) for a green — you're entering into weakness. The veto only fires on a genuine breakdown that hasn't turned up.
4 · LEAP — a buy, not premium income
A LEAP is accumulation in a confirmed uptrend — often on a pullback. It qualifies on just two hard checks (an uptrend and a workable contract); everything else is a graded 0–11 score, never a hard reject. A LEAP is never shown red.
| Element | Rule |
|---|---|
| Delta | 0.75–0.80 (deep ITM = intrinsic-led) |
| DTE | 180–900 · target ~542 (Jan-2027+) |
| Gate 1 — Uptrend | price > 200-MA and 50-MA > 200-MA. Below the 50-MA is fine — a pullback inside the uptrend (§2). |
| Gate 2 — Contract backstop | time value (premium − intrinsic) ≤ 55% of premium — reject a mostly-rented-time call |
Score (0–11), all transparent: IV vs realized (<1.0 → 3 · <1.25 → 2) · RSI §2 zone (45–55 → 3 · 33–45 → 2 · 55–65 → 1) · time value (≤25% → 2 · ≤40% → 1) · carry = (time value ÷ spot)×365/DTE (≤5% → 2 · ≤8% → 1) · uptrend confirmed → 1. Carry and time value cost points but no longer gate — only the 55% backstop can reject a contract.
5 · The traffic light — how it all rolls up
Every suggestion carries one colour — a scorecard rollup of the rules above, not a single gate. It's information for your own decision, not a command: amber means analyze.
| Light | CSP / CC | LEAP |
|---|---|---|
| STRONG | tradeable and a full setup — right side of median, in-fit, score ≥ 8 (§3) | qualifies (§4) and entry score ≥ 8/11 |
| ANALYZE | tradeable, but the setup is partial — wrong side of median, or timing < 8 — your call | qualifies, entry score 5–7/11 — your call |
| BLOCKED | a hard NO only — earnings inside the trade, thin premium, or no liquidity | — (a LEAP is never red) |
| OFF-TREND | — | not in an uptrend, or no workable contract — grey, not a buy zone (§4) |
Red is reserved for a hard NO — a reason not to place the trade at all: earnings within the trade, thin premium (below the §1 minimum), or no liquidity (OI or bid/ask). Everything else — the median side, delta/DTE fit, a weak timing score — caps at ANALYZE (amber), never red. A LEAP is never red either: it qualifies (green/amber by its score /11, shown beside the dot) or reads OFF-TREND (grey). Every node in a tile's hover is exactly what the colour rolls up.